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El Nino predictions premature and unreliable
14 Apr 2005
Warnings in the last week of an emerging El Nino weather event in Australia may be unreliable. Meteorologists at Florida State University say that forecasts made in March and April are among the least reliable, and that El Nino conditions don’t usually develop until May. Forecasters at the University of Southern Queensland have said in recent days that the chance of an El Nino pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean in the middle of this year was now about 50 per cent, compared with 20 per cent in most years. The El Nino pattern, which relates to water temperature, is closely correlated with extended periods of drought in Australia.
The Australian, 14/04/05
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