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Exports surge after big dry but dollar dampens outlook
19 Apr 2004
Victoria's agricultural exports are rebounding from the drought, although the state Department of Treasury and Finance says prospects are mixed.
The value of dairy exports - the state's second most valuable export - surged 34.5 per cent in the December 2003 quarter, albeit from a low base in 2002-2003 due to the drought and other factors. But the appreciation of the $AUD against the $US has hit farmers' returns badly. Treasury said that despite higher world dairy prices, Victorian farm gate prices are forecast to be 4 per cent lower in 2003-2004, falling a further 2 per cent in 2004-2005.
Raw textile fibres and meat product exports were also up in the December quarter, by 34 per cent and 20.1 per cent respectively, but also rose from a low base in 2002-2003.
Treasury also said that despite reduced supplies, wool prices will decline due to reduced world demand for textiles and clothing. Prices will decline further in 2002-2005, due to competition from synthetics.
Sheepmeat production as well as beef prices will remain high. The grain harvest should remain large, but world wheat prices are expected to be 6-7 per cent lower in 2004-2005 compared with the two previous years. Wine exports are reaching the levels of traditional high export earners such as grains, fruits and vegetables, and beef.
The Age, 19/4/04.
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