Lamb forecast to remain high, mutton steady
8 Mar 2004
ABARE is expecting an average annual lamb price of 339 cents a kilogram for the 2004-2005 financial year and the price is not expected to fall below 290 cents a kilogram before 2009, in real terms. While the prices are below the expected average of 361c/kg for the current financial year, they are well above 1990s' prices of around 200c/kg.
ABARE's projected annual prices for lamb, in present day terms, are 339c/kg (2004-05), 294c/kg (2005-06), 306c/kg (2006-07), 299c/kg (2007-08) and 292c/kg (2008-09). Prices will ease throughout the period due to relatively high production costs compared with meats such as pork or chicken, as well as an increase in lamb numbers.
In the current financial year, 347,000 tonnes of lamb (carcase weight) are forecast; then 375,000t in 2004-2005, 382,000t in 2005-2006, before easing then increasing to 389,000t in 2008-2009.
Mutton production is expected to fall from 268,000t this financial year to 201,000t and stay around that level for the medium term, returning to 267,000t in 2008-2009.
Stock & Land, 4/3/04.
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