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Harvest up but exports down
23 Sep 2003
ABARE has raised its forecast for commodity export earnings in 2003-2004 to $83.9 billion, up from $82.8 billion in June, due to the nation's looming bumper grain harvest and improving prospects for world economic recovery.
However the new figure is still down on last year's exports of $86.7 billion, as result of the higher $AUD, lingering effects from the drought and declining prices for some key farm and mineral resource exports.
Higher prices are expected in 2003-2004 for rice, cotton, beef and dairy products, but lower prices are forecast for grains, oilseeds, sugar and wool. Higher prices are expected for aluminium, gold, nickel, copper, lead and zinc, but energy prices are forecast to fall 11 per cent.
The gross value of crop production in 2002-2003 has risen to $18.5 billion, up from $17.5 billion in June and 34.6 per cent more than last year, according to ABARE.
The forecast net value of farm production in 2003-2004 has also improved significantly over the past three months, to $5.4 billion, which is double last year's figure and $1.4 billion more than forecast in June this year.
In total, farm exports are forecast to fall 3.1 per cent to $26.2 billion in 2003-2004, with increased grain production offset by lower production from drought-depleted cattle and sheep populations.
Australian Financial Review, 23/9/03.
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